aes24 International Evaluation Conference

Professor, International Development, University of Bath, UK

As evaluators, we are often asked to find out ‘what caused what’ in the past, but also resist being labelled solely as hired evidence collectors. I argue for further effort to move beyond ‘what worked?’ to ‘what next?’- from outcome-activity links in the past to scenario-action possibilities and options in the future. Anticipatory evaluation can enhance the relevance and usefulness of our work, but also accentuates the challenges of appropriate framing, causal analysis, normative deliberation, and influencing. It increases uncertainty, recasts stakeholder relationships, and requires use of a wider range of complexity-informed methods. I explore these issues by reflecting on the scope for anticipatory evaluative practice in four diverse fields, each at a different level: planning doctoral research (interpersonal), appraising impact investment (organisational), mainstreaming social policy initiatives (national), and rethinking development (global). Becoming more future-oriented makes new demands on each of us as evaluation professionals, but also requires collective action to build stronger bridges with communities of practice in anticipatory action, appraisal, foresight, and future thinking.