aes24 International Evaluation Conference

Authors: Nerida Rixon

Developing program theory for complex government reforms and charting the 'how' we will reach our destination is not easy. Perhaps you, like me, rely on well tested templates? Do we challenge them and continually refine them to reflect emerging research and make them more useful for our purposes?

This research is about public policy packages and reforms and the program theories (or reform theories) that explain them. This research emerges from a desire to build program theory better, particularly in the context of whole of government reforms. Better program theory can drive better planning, monitoring and evaluation of performance, and better policy and public good.

Evidence shows Australian governments are not effectively planning, monitoring and evaluating performance of programs and policy packages. Theory can support development of meaningful performance indicators to track progress. Without strong program theory and clear strategy, as the Productivity Commission's recent 'Review of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap' study report suggests, we risk a 'spray and pray' approach to change, prioritisation of the wrong things and siloed policy responses.

A literature informed checklist to analyse program theory for completeness and relevance to public administration is provided. Policy makers and evaluators are given a tool and lens to build more complete and relevant program theory and to improve existing program theory.

Analysis of program theory in 15 government reform strategies and outcomes frameworks is presented to show governments' strengths and opportunities. Governments are strong at identifying our destination, or the intended outcomes, though not always in identifying the 'how' we will get there. Governments could improve their program theory by making it more explicit and more complete by articulating 'the when' we expect to see changes from implementing the reforms. Government program theory might be more relevant if potential (non-intended) outcomes are referenced.